The Impact of Supply Chain Issues on the Aviation Industry to Persist Until 2025: The Problem of Aging Aircraft and Rising Lease Rates

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has indicated that the negative impact of supply chain issues on the aviation industry is expected to continue until 2025.

The average age of the world’s aircraft fleet has significantly increased to 14.8 years, up from 13.6 years between 1990 and 2024, due to delays in aircraft deliveries. The number of aircraft deliveries in 2024 has significantly decreased to 1,254 units from 1,813 units in 2018. Although 1,802 units are expected to be delivered in 2025, this number falls short of the previous forecast of 2,293 units, and there is potential for further downward revisions.

The backlog of undelivered orders has reached an all-time high of 17,000 units, and at the current pace, it would take 14 years to fulfill these orders – a dramatic increase from the average of 6 years between 2013 and 2019. However, an increase in deliveries is expected to bring some improvement.

Approximately 5,000 aircraft, or 14% of the total fleet, are currently grounded. This exceeds the pre-pandemic level of 10%, with 700 of these aircraft, accounting for 2%, grounded due to engine inspections.

Aging aircraft face the triple challenges of higher maintenance costs, increased fuel consumption, and a 20-30% rise in lease rates compared to 2019. The industry’s progress towards its carbon dioxide emissions reduction goal of achieving net-zero by 2050 is lagging. Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, emphasized, “If aircraft and engine manufacturers resolve supply chain issues, it will enable the operation of more fuel-efficient equipments, thus accelerating the achievement of the aviation industry’s goals.”