Embraer Forecasts Demand for 8,500 Aircraft with Up to 150 Seats by 2045

Embraer has released its 20-year market outlook for commercial aircraft with up to 150 seats. The announcement was made ahead of the Farnborough Airshow, to be held near London, United Kingdom.

Global passenger traffic is projected to grow by 3.7% annually, based on revenue passenger kilometers (RPK). China is expected to lead with annual growth of 5.2%, followed by the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America. By 2045, Asia-Pacific and China combined are forecast to account for 40% of RPK traffic, while Europe and North America combined are expected to account for 37%.

Demand for new aircraft with up to 150 seats is projected to reach 8,500 units by 2045, representing a market valued at USD 650 billion. By region, deliveries are expected to total 2,670 aircraft in North America (31%), 1,870 in Europe and the CIS (22%), 1,470 in China (17%), 1,050 in Asia-Pacific (13%), 740 in Latin America (9%), 370 in Africa (4%), and 330 in the Middle East (4%).

In Asia-Pacific, including Japan, 785 passenger aircraft with up to 150 seats were in operation as of 2025. This fleet is forecast to more than quadruple to 2,560 aircraft by 2044.

Arjan Meijer, President and CEO of Commercial Aviation at Embraer, noted that the restructuring of how people, capital, and goods move will affect future passenger flows. He said that the expansion of advanced manufacturing clusters and regional value chains is creating demand for efficient, high-frequency links connecting centers of emerging economies. He also stated that changing consumer preferences, particularly in tourism, are driving demand for aircraft with up to 150 seats by increasing the need for better connectivity to smaller markets.

Embraer said airlines need appropriately sized aircraft to balance supply and demand as they expand their networks to more destinations. It emphasized that aircraft in the 150-seat category will play an important role in profitable growth, stronger interregional connectivity, and the development of resilient air transport networks.