The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has forecast that global air passenger demand will more than double by 2050.
From 2024 onward, the average annual growth rate is expected to remain at 3.1 percent, with revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) reaching 20.8 trillion in 2050. In the high-growth case, the average annual growth rate is projected at 3.3 percent, and in the low-growth case at 2.9 percent. The scenarios vary according to assumptions about long-term economic growth, demographics, and aviation fuel prices.
In the central scenario, the Asia-Pacific region and Africa are expected to see strong growth, with average annual growth rates of 3.8 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively. By contrast, Europe is projected to grow by 2.5 percent and North America by 2.8 percent. By market segment, high growth is anticipated for intra-Africa routes, Africa–Asia-Pacific routes, Asia-Pacific–Middle East routes, intra–Asia-Pacific routes, and Africa–North America routes.
As a long-term trend, IATA points out that the spread of COVID-19 has brought about a permanent structural change in air travel demand, and that market maturity is leading to a gradual slowdown in growth rates. At the same time, the number of passengers is expected to continue increasing significantly.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, commented, “The outlook for air travel is bright. In all scenarios, demand is expected to at least double by the middle of this century, and in terms of acting as a catalyst for global economic and social development, including job creation, this is very good news.”
The model used for the forecast draws on more than 500,000 data points for around 41,000 country-direction pairs between 2011 and 2024, taking real GDP per capita, adjusted for purchasing power parity, as the most important demand driver. Its forecasting accuracy, validated against historical data, reaches an average of 98 percent.
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